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☆ 5 indicators that show the US economy is still firing on all cylinders despite slowing GDP
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The US economy is still firing on all cylinders despite slowing GDP growth in the first quarter. "The workhorse of the US economy remains the consumer, and there's really not much sign of a slowdown," Varghese said. AdvertisementThe US economy is firing on all cylinders despite a slowdown in first-quarter GDP growth, according to Carson Group global macro strategist Sonu Varghese. These are the five indicators that give Varghese confidence that the US consumer, and therefore the US economy, remains on solid footing. Income growth is outpacing inflationDespite elevated inflation, wage growth continues to outpace inflation growth, and that's ultimately a boon for consumers.

Persons: Sonu Varghese, there's, Varghese, that's, That's, " Varghese, here's Organizations: Carson, Carson Group

☆ Treasury yields rise ahead of Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by around two basis points to 4.6343%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 4.9809% after rising by less than one basis point. U.S. Treasury yields were slightly higher on Tuesday as investors looked to economic data for hints about the state of the economy ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting. Investors awaited economic data and looked to the Federal Reserve's meeting, which is due to begin Tuesday and conclude Wednesday with a fresh interest rate decision and press conference. Last week, the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's favored inflation gauge, came in slightly above expectations for March.

Organizations: Treasury, Investors, Headline

☆ Why economists who originally expected multiple deep rate cuts in 2024 now say a hike is possible
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

From deeps rate cuts to a potential rate hike in 2024, one firm has changed its forecast in a big way. Macquarie said the resilient economy means potential interest rate cuts won't happen until 2025. Assuming the central bank moves the federal funds rate down by 25 basis point increments, that would equate to nine interest rate cuts just this year. AdvertisementThat lack of economic weakness has led to a stark shift in interest rate forecasts, with even the Federal Reserve suggesting that its initial projections of three interest rate cuts this year could dwindle to one rate cut or even none. That could be a double whammy for a stock market that had been largely fixated on interest rate cuts this year.

Persons: Macquarie, —, David Doyle, Neil Shankar, Jerome Powell Organizations: Service, Macquarie, Federal Reserve, Fed, UBS

☆ The Fed is focusing on 'flawed' data and keeping rates high will result in a big policy mistake, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewThe Federal Reserve's fixation on a streak of "flawed" data to justify keeping interest rates higher for longer is bound to spark a policy mistake, according to top economist David Rosenberg. "The Fed seems to be focusing not just on flawed data, but on headlines only. Finally, he noted that the Fed's long-term view of the economy as still hot based on non-farm payroll data was dashed by the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages and Business Employment Dynamics. Rosenberg pointed out that the payroll report may be exaggerating actual employment by 70,000 per month. Meanwhile, BED data indicated a 192,000 drop in private employment in Q3 of last year, whereas private job payroll data reported a significant 521,000 increase in that time.

Persons: —, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, it's Organizations: Service, Business, Fed, Quarterly, Employment Dynamics

☆ Treasury yields fall as investors look to Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The 2-year Treasury yield was last more than one basis point lower to 4.9830%. U.S. Treasury yields declined on Monday as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve policy meeting and economic data scheduled for this week. Investors awaited the Federal Reserve's meeting, which is set to begin Tuesday and conclude with an interest rate decision and press conference about policymakers' discussions on Wednesday. While markets are widely expecting interest rates to remain unchanged, investors will be closely watching out for policy guidance from the central bank. This comes as recent economy data has suggested resilience from the economy and persistent inflationary pressures.

Persons: Dow Jones, payrolls Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, Investors

Sticky inflation has pushed mortgage rates up in recent months, and we likely won't see them trend down until inflation starts decelerating again. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Go Up (+0.23%)The average 15-year mortgage rate is 6.48%, 23 basis points higher than last week. Mortgage Refinance Rates30-Year Fixed Refinance Rates Fall Slightly (-0.11%)The average 30-year refinance rate is 7.42%, 11 basis points lower than last week. Mortgage rates also rose dramatically in 2023, though they started trending back down toward the end of the year.

Persons: decelerating, it's, you'll, It's, refinance Organizations: Federal, US, of Economic, Zillow, FHA Locations: Chevron

Most major forecasts believe that mortgage rates will ultimately trend down this year. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's interest rates will affect your monthly payments. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesThis week's average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.17%, according to Freddie Mac. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates inched up to 6.44% this week, according to Freddie Mac data. Mortgage rates increased dramatically over the last two years, but they're expected to go down at some point this year.

Persons: Fannie Mae, you'll, Freddie Mac, it's Organizations: Reserve, US, of, Zillow, Federal Reserve Locations: Chevron

☆ 2 experts outline a looming scenario where the US economy ends up caught in a dreaded period of stagflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-27 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

This would force interest rates to stay higher for longer, putting pressure on US businesses and consumers. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementA pair of economic reports has brought back a word no central banker ever wants to hear: stagflation. The difficult scenario occurs when inflation rises and growth stalls, a dangerous combination just experienced by the US economy.

Persons: stagflation, —, Thursday's, LPL, Jeffrey Roach, Mike Reynolds, Reynolds, Jamie Dimon, Roach, shouldn't Organizations: Service, Federal, yesterday's, Fed, Wall Street, Bank of America

☆ The US economy may end up caught in a dreaded period of stagflation. 2 experts outline the scenario, and how to keep your money safe
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-27 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

☆ Europe is beating inflation. Why can’t America declare victory?
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

The Fed aims to keep inflation at 2% over the longer run. Meanwhile, among the 20 countries that use the euro, annual consumer price inflation has slowed steadily since the start of the year. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said earlier this month that she would favor a rate hike “should progress on inflation stall or even reverse.”So why does the United States appear to have a bigger inflation problem than Europe? Some economists argue there isn’t actually much daylight between the US and European rates of inflation, pointing to a quirk in the US measures. The measure is designed to track inflation in the real estate market while accounting for the fact that most Americans own their homes.

Persons: Michelle Bowman, Paul Donovan, Simon MacAdam, ”, MacAdam, ” Carsten Brzeski, Janet Yellen, Jim Watson, Brzeski, “, ” Davide Oneglia Organizations: London CNN, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, PCE, UBS Global Wealth Management, Capital Economics, ING, CNN, Monetary Fund, Washington, Reuters, Getty, —, ECB, Lombard Locations: United States, Europe, Centreville , Maryland, AFP, Russia, Ukraine

☆ We have more insights as to where the economy is headed — and it's not good
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . In today's big story, we're looking at how the latest GDP data has shifted the expectations of where the economy is headed. Now, the economy will need some type of event (see: bubble popping) for rate cuts to become an option anytime soon, Miskin said. Energy price shocks could bring the world economy to a "vulnerable moment," chief economist Indermit Gill warned.

Persons: —, TikTok, they're, you'd, Jia Feng, It'll, Insider's Madison Hoff, It's, Jerome Powell, Anna Moneymaker, BI's Filip De Mott, Jamie Dimon, Matt Miskin, Miskin, Mark Zuckerberg, C, Cox, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Goldman Sachs, Guess what's, Indermit Gill, Alphabet's, Redmond, Tyler Le, Doug McMillon, execs, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Business, Service, Reserve, stagflation, JPMorgan, Wall Street, John Hancock Investment Management, Galatioto Sports Partners, Bank, Google, Big Tech, Microsoft, Health, Linkedin, YouTube, ExxonMobil Locations: Chevron, New York, London

☆ Gold on track for first weekly dip in six; focus on U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

An employee handles one kilogram gold bullions at the YLG Bullion International Co. headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand, on Friday, Dec. 22, 2023. Gold was little changed on Friday ahead of a key U.S. inflation report, but prices were on track for their first weekly drop in six weeks on easing concerns of a major escalation of the Middle East crisis. Focus now turns to March's core Personal Consumption Expenditures, or PCE, index data due later on Friday — the Fed's preferred measure of inflation — for further clues on the U.S. rate outlook. The dollar index was headed for its biggest weekly dip since early March, making the greenback-priced bullion less expensive for other currency holders. Spot silver rose 0.2% to $27.49 per ounce, spot platinum rose 0.8% to $921.45 and palladium gained 1.4% to $988.22.

Persons: Gold, Yeap Jun Rong, Jun Rong Organizations: Co, Federal Locations: Bangkok, Thailand, U.S

☆ Stock market today: Indexes gain as investors assess new inflation data and latest earnings
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( Max Adams | Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks rose on Friday as markets assessed new inflation data in the form of March PCE. The Fed's preferred gauge showed inflation rose 2.8% year-over-year, slightly higher than estimates. AdvertisementUS stocks climbed on Friday, with investors digesting new inflation data and cheering earnings from mega-cap tech titans Microsoft and Alphabet. Personal consumption expenditures data showed prices rose more than expected last month. The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation showed an uptick of 2.8% versus estimates of 2.7%.

Persons: —, Clark Bellin Organizations: PCE, Microsoft, Google, Service, Federal, Bellwether

☆ Watch CNBC’s full interview with Cantor’s Eric Johnson, Payne’s Courtney Garcia and Invesco’s Brian Levitt
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Cantor’s Eric Johnson, Payne’s Courtney Garcia and Invesco’s Brian LevittCantor's Eric Johnson, Payne Capital's Courtney Garcia and Invesco's Brian Levitt, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss markets, PCE, potential for rate cuts, and the state of the consumer.

Persons: Cantor’s Eric Johnson, Payne’s Courtney Garcia, Invesco’s Brian Levitt, Eric Johnson, Payne Capital's Courtney Garcia, Invesco's Brian Levitt

☆ Stock market today: Indexes jump to close best week since November as investors cheer tech earnings
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementUS stocks closed higher on Friday to end the best week since November, with tech rallying after earnings from mega-cap stalwarts. Instead, traders focused mostly on earnings strength from Alphabet and Microsoft. In a Friday note, Fundstrat's Mark Newton pointed out that the earnings of Alphabet and Microsoft are paving the way for a broad rally. Next week, Apple and Amazon, will release earnings and investors will be focused on the Fed's next policy meeting scheduled for April 30-May 1.

Persons: —, Fundstrat's Mark Newton, Savita Subramanian, we're, it's, Subramanian Organizations: Microsoft, Service, Federal, Amazon, Nvidia, Technology, Bank of, CNBC, Apple, Dow Locations: Here's

☆ How to position for growth in earnings, inflation, and the economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHow to position for growth in earnings, inflation, and the economySophie Lund-Yates, Senior Equity Analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, and Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at the Carson Group, discuss mega-cap tech earnings, today's PCE report, and the direction of the markets.

Persons: Sophie Lund, Yates, Hargreaves Lansdown, Ryan Detrick Organizations: Carson Group, PCE

☆ Our base case remains that we'll still see a soft landing in the U.S.: JPMorgan's Elyse Ausenbaugh
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOur base case remains that we'll still see a soft landing in the U.S.: JPMorgan's Elyse AusenbaughElyse Ausenbaugh, JPMorgan Private Bank global investment strategist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, what to expect from today's March PCE inflation, state of the economy, and more.

Persons: we'll, Ausenbaugh Organizations: JPMorgan Private Bank Locations: U.S

☆ The consumer is strong, but weakening: Cantor's Eric Johnson
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe consumer is strong, but weakening: Cantor's Eric JohnsonCantor's Eric Johnson, Payne Capital's Courtney Garcia and Invesco's Brian Levitt, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss markets, PCE, potential for rate cuts, and the state of the consumer.

Persons: Eric Johnson Cantor's Eric Johnson, Payne Capital's Courtney Garcia, Invesco's Brian Levitt

☆ Treasury yields ease slightly ahead of key inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the 10-year Treasury was down by over three basis points to 4.6754%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was last more than one basis point lower at 4.9850%. U.S. Treasury yields fell on Friday as investors digested Thursday's gross domestic product report and looked ahead to the release of key inflation figures. The yields on the 10-year Treasury and 2-year Treasury had soared to their highest levels since November on Thursday, following the release of a weaker-than-expected U.S. gross domestic product reading. Fresh inflation insights are expected Friday in form of the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's favored inflation gauge.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, PCE

☆ All the data so far is showing inflation isn't going away, and is making things tough on the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Finally, consumers are dipping into savings to fund those purchases, creating a precarious scenario, if not now then down the road. With unemployment under 4%, it shouldn't be that surprising that prices aren't" going down, said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities. So you might have a sticky inflation scenario." "If inflation remains higher, the Fed will be faced with the difficult choice of pushing the economy into a recession, abandoning its soft-landing scenario, or tolerating inflation higher than 2%," Sanders said. "To us, accepting higher inflation is the more prudent option."

Persons: Justin Sullivan, Joseph LaVorgna, LaVorgna, Donald Trump, Biden, Mike Sanders, Sanders Organizations: Getty, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Nikko Securities, National Economic Council, Madison Investments Locations: San Rafael , California, U.S

☆ Key Fed inflation measure rose 2.8% in March from a year ago, more than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Inflation showed little signs of letting up in March, with a key barometer the Federal Reserve watches closely showing that price pressures remain elevated. The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy increased 2.8% from a year ago in March, the same as in February, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Including food and energy, the all-items PCE price gauge increased 2.7%, compared to the 2.6% estimate. The Fed targets 2% inflation, a level that core PCE has been above for the past three years. Services prices increased 0.4% on the month while goods were up 0.1%, reflecting a swing back in consumer prices as goods inflation dominated since the early days of the Covid pandemic.

Persons: Dow Jones, George Mateyo Organizations: Reserve, Commerce Department, Dow, Treasury, Key Wealth, Fed, Labor Department

☆ Stagflation fears just hit Wall Street. Now for the next crucial report on prices
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —The Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation reading is due Friday morning. Investors are nervously awaiting the report after first-quarter US GDP came in softer than expected Thursday. Stocks tumbled as the slowdown in GDP, coupled with stubbornly high inflation data, stoked fears of stagflation. Wall Street earlier this year expected that the central bank would ease rates as many as six times in 2024, beginning in March. Yellen said the weaker reading was not “concerning,” mentioning that measures of underlying growth were strong in Thursday’s report.

Persons: Stocks, ”, Ayako Yoshioka, Janet Yellen, Alessandra Galloni, Alicia Wallace, ” Yellen, “, we’ve, Yellen, Read, Freddie Mac, Bryan Mena, Lawrence Yun Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Gross, Commerce Department, Atlanta, Fed, Thursday’s, Group, Traders, Bank of America, Reuters, National Association of Realtors Locations: New York, Yellen

☆ Stock market today: US indexes drop as 1st-quarter GDP growth comes in weaker than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Max Adams | Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks fell sharply Thursday as data showed the US economy grew much slower than expected to start 2024. The report also showed consumer prices rising in the quarter, complicating the Fed's rate-cut decision. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . The market will be focused on personal consumption expenditures data, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, which is due out on Friday. AdvertisementBond yields jumped as traders reacted to the economic data.

Persons: —, Quincy Krosby Organizations: Treasury, Service, Economic, Federal Reserve, LPL, Here's

☆ Slowing growth plus stubborn inflation add up to a headache for Fed officials
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The slowing growth and stubborn inflation picture emerging in the U.S. economy may not be quite a nightmare scenario for the Federal Reserve, but it at least could make for some restless sleep. Markets had been looking for the string of good readings dating back to mid-2022 to continue, with economists estimating real GDP growth of 2.4% and inflation readings around 3%. What it got was essentially what some on Wall Street called the worst of both worlds, with weakening growth and stubborn price pressures. The Fed will get a more granular look at PCE data on Friday when the Commerce Department releases the monthly figures for March. "We still think Fed cuts are coming this summer, before inflation has sustainably slowed."

Persons: Matthew Ryan, —, Ryan, Steven Blitz, Veronica Clark Organizations: Federal Reserve, Commerce, Treasury, Commerce Department, TS Lombard, Citigroup, Citi Locations: U.S

☆ Stock market today: Dow falls 375 points as traders brace for new inflation data after weak GDP
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Max Adams | Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Commentators pointed out that the data was still mostly strong but inflation is problematic. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementStocks fell on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 375 points as the market took in weaker-than-expected economic data. Savings rates are falling as sticky inflation puts greater pressure on the consumer," LPL Financial chief economist Jeffrey Roach said.

Persons: —, Stocks, Jeffrey Roach Organizations: Service, Dow Jones Industrial, Reserve, Barclays, Bank of America, PCE, Financial, Treasury, Meta, Microsoft, Google

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